Betting the final week of the regular season can be intimidating given the number of moving pieces. That said, sportsbooks are having problems of their own and you may be able to exploit a recent weakness.
From 2009 to ’18, under tickets cashed 55.4% of the time in the final week of regular seasons as books struggled to adjust for the decline in talent in some of these spots and the impact that would have on totals. Over the past three seasons, however, overs have come through 70.2% of the time.
That’s an astronomical number, and the average total is below the season average. Will the overcorrection continue and pay out big time for those betting on scoring? Only time will tell, but while you work on determining your stance there, consider a trend for every single team entering the final week of the 2022 regular season …
Saturday 4:30 p.m.
Chiefs ATS: 6-10
What we know about the Chiefs: Since 2015, the Chiefs are the best ATS team in final week of seasons: 6-1 ATS.
Raiders ATS: 8-8
What we know about the Raiders: In each of Vegas’ past three wins, over tickets have also cashed.
Saturday 8:15 p.m.
Titans ATS: 8-7-1
What we know about the Titans: November 17. That is the last time the Titans covered a spread (27017 win in Lambeau against a very different looking Packers team).
Jaguars ATS: 8-8
What we know about the Jaguars: The Jags covered their first meeting with the Titans this season and that means they are looking for their first ATS sweep of the Titans since 2014.
Sunday 1 p.m.
Panthers ATS: 8-8
What we know about the Panthers: After three straight unders, over tickets have chased in four consecutive Panther games.
Saints ATS: 7-9
What we know about the Saints: After covering three of four home games to open the season, the Saints are just 1-3 ATS in their past four home games.
Browns ATS: 8-7-1
What we know about the Browns: Under bettors have won in all five of Deshaun Watson‘s starts this season and in six straight Cleveland games overall.
Steelers ATS: 9-6-1
What we know about the Steelers: The Steelers have covered three games at home this season and all three of those games went under the total.
Texans ATS: 7-8-1
What we know about the Texans: All five of Houston’s divisional games this season have gone under the total.
Colts ATS: 6-10
What we know about the Colts: What home field advantage? The Colts are 3-4 ATS at home and haven’t had more ATS wins than ATS losses at home since 2017.
Vikings ATS: 6-9-1
What we know about the Vikings: That’s now six straight overs in Viking games (Minnesota has failed to cover each of the past four).
Bears ATS: 5-10-1
What we know about the Bears: Over tickets have come through in four of Chicago’s past five home games.
Patriots ATS: 7-8-1
What we know about the Patriots: Immediately following a 6-1 ATS run, the Patriots have dropped five of six ATS.
Bills ATS: 6-7-2
What we know about the Bills: The Buffalo Bills last covered at home in Week 5.
Jets ATS: 8-8
What we know about the Jets: In each of New York’s past three games, they both failed to cover and cashed under tickets.
Dolphins ATS: 8-8
What we know about the Dolphins: Under bettors have left six of seven Miami home games with more money than they started with (lone exception: Week 10 vs CLE).
Ravens ATS: 6-9-1
What we know about the Ravens: Baltimore has seen 10 of their past 15 road games go under the projected total.
Bengals ATS: 12-3
What we know about the Bengals: Only once over Cincy’s past six divisional games has an over ticket cashed.
Buccaneers ATS: 4-11-1
What we know about the Buccaneers: Under tickets have come through in eight of Tampa Bay’s past 10 road games.
Falcons ATS: 8-8
What we know about the Falcons: After seven straight meetings with the Bucs went over the projected total, each of the past past two meetings (including Week 5 this season) have gone under the number.
Sunday 4:25 p.m.
Cardinals ATS: 8-8
What we know about the Cardinals: The Cardinals are 7-2-1 ATS in their past 10 games against the 49ers. That said, one of those losses came in Week 11, a game they lost 38-10 as a 9.5-point underdog.
49ers ATS: 10-6
What we know about the 49ers: San Francisco has covered and cashed over bets in each of their past three home games.
Cowboys ATS: 10-6
What we know about the Cowboys: Under tickets hit in four of Dallas’ five games, but just one of their November games went under and the same was true in December.
Commanders ATS: 7-8-1
What we know about the Commanders: Washington is just 3-8 ATS in their past 11 games against the Cowboys (overs are 7-4 in those games).
Giants ATS: 12-4
What we know about the Giants: After a 3-6 ATS season on the road, the G-men have covered six of seven games away from home this season.
Eagles ATS: 8-8
What we know about the Eagles: The Eagles are in the midst of their second three-game ATS losing streak of the season (the two most recent games were played with Jalen Hurts).
Rams ATS: 5-10-1
What we know about the Rams: The Rams are 3-2 ATS over their past five games, this coming after a five game stretch in which they did not cover a single game.
Seahawks ATS: 7-9
What we know about the Seahawks: The Seahawks snapped a six-game ATS losing streak last week against the Jets, but they did reward under bettors for a third consecutive game.
Chargers ATS: 10-5-1
What we know about the Chargers: The Chargers are 6-2 ATS on the road this season and four of those covers have come by two or fewer points.
Broncos ATS: 7-9
What we know about the Broncos: The Broncos are 4-1 ATS since the beginning of December.
Sunday 8:20 p.m.
Lions ATS: 11-5
What we know about the Lions: Detroit is 3-1 ATS in their past four road games and overs are also 3-1 over that stretch.
Packers ATS: 8-8
What we know about the Packers: The Packers have covered 65.2% of divisional games since the beginning of 2019, tied for the best rate among NFC teams.